The research engine
Everything below exists so you never have to do any of it. Full-universe scanning, backwards scoring against resolved outcomes, out-of-sample validation — the work, shown.
Verifiable without revealing the edge
The Oracle identities are the edge, so we don't publish them. Here's how you verify us without them: every position is timestamped at entry, before resolution — the record can't be curated after the fact — and the sealed roster and full positions file are SHA-256 hash-committed below. When we later reveal, the hashes prove nothing was changed retroactively.
Roster commitment
SHA-256 of the sealed Oracle roster (full identities and statistics).
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Positions commitment
SHA-256 of the full open-positions file and portfolio book (with market identities).
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810,747 wallets went in. 12 came out.
Every wallet on Polymarket enters the same statistical gauntlet. Almost none survive it.
0.0015%survival rate — and the survivors are re-tested continuously
The mathematics that survives peer review
Every claim on this site passes through the machinery below — with multiple-testing correction, chronological holdouts and cluster-adjusted inference. These are the actual formulas the engine runs.
Running 1,003 simultaneous lead-lag tests guarantees false positives by chance — BH controls the false-discovery rate across the whole family. Survivors carry adjusted p-values as low as 4.9×10⁻¹³¹.
For each wallet: of n resolved entries, how many came before the market's reprice, under minimum-move and minimum-lead thresholds (values proprietary)? Scored on a chronological train window, then re-scored on an untouched holdout.
Day-clustered bootstrap over 64 independent trade-clusters — trades on the same thesis count once, so the interval can't be inflated by correlated fills. It excludes zero.
Every historical fill is joined to the market's resolved outcome r — no mark-to-market flattery, only what actually happened.
Lead-rate distribution — validated roster
Share of entries preceding the reprice, out-of-sample, per wallet.
Entry-price distribution — recent wins
Where the winning entries were priced. Left of 0.5 = mispricing calls.
From signal to sized position
The techniques are named — that is the credibility. The calibration is the edge, and it stays private.
Win-probability w against fill price p. Every quoted edge is reduced by a measured execution-cost haircut so results are conservative by construction. The haircut's value is proprietary.
Textbook Kelly gives the growth-optimal fraction; the engine runs a proprietary fraction of it, scaled by signal conviction and market liquidity, clamped by hard per-market, per-category, per-Oracle and per-cluster concentration limits plus a cash floor. The coefficients and caps stay private.
The research engine
The full methodology and wallet intelligence behind the pool — open for anyone who wants to go deep.
Research methodology
Every wallet enters a four-stage gauntlet: full-universe harvesting, backward scoring against resolved outcomes (net of an adverse-fill haircut), lead-lag testing on an out-of-sample holdout window, and Benjamini-Hochberg correction for multiple testing. Only survivors are validated.
| Stage | Count | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| Discovered | — | Every wallet surfaced from full-universe market harvesting |
| Scored | — | Scored for expected value per dollar, net of adverse-fill haircut |
| Deep-profiled | — | Full trade-history reconstruction and lead-lag testing |
| Validated | — | Benjamini-Hochberg corrected and holdout-confirmed |
Leaderboards & wallet intelligence
EV per dollar — top wallets
Ranked by expected value per dollar, net of adverse-fill haircut.
Category leaders
The strongest validated wallet per market category.
Smart-money pods
Wallet pairs that repeatedly enter the same markets early, together.
What is The Smart Money Pool?
The Smart Money Pool is an AI-managed prediction market portfolio built on validated Polymarket Oracles. Its research engine scans the entire wallet universe, validates the rare Oracles whose entries consistently precede the market — confirmed out-of-sample — and condenses their signals into one diversified, risk-capped portfolio. Everything on this page renders from two public data files, and every wallet can be verified independently on the Polygon blockchain. The live coverage has two layers: the wide radar (market-wide smart-money activity across the tracked candidates — not pool positions) and the validated roster whose trades the engine follows closely.